Sunday, December 27, 2009

Stuff Your Faces Like/Because There's No Tomorrow

Ah, the days of stuffing our faces and dishing out prezzies like there's no tomorrow. Well, is there a tomorrow anything like yesterday?

According to an increasing volume of observers, no.

Financial ruin may well face the US in 2010 according to the best economics blog out there ZeroHedge

And Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator of the Financial Times is urging leaders to act now to avert global currency tensions ahead of the imminent collapse of the $ as the world's reserve currency. See the report here or excerpt below:

Do we need a new reserve currency?

"Because the dollar, to my mind, given its underlying conditions, is no longer a credible long-term store of value," said Wolf. The decline of the US dollar underscores a phase of global power transition, with the balance of power moving from the US to Europe, China and India, Wolf argues, adding that the greenback's loss of credibility as the dominant global reserve currency is part of this messy transition.

No credible US policy

"The Americans no longer have the means to save themselves, this is what I think people don't understand. There is no credible American policy," said Wolf.

"We need to discuss this globally in a harmonious way. It's not happening, so at the moment the euro zone is a prime victim and it will continue to be, and that will create very big problems for European-based manufacturers, and quite particularly those that are relatively vulnerable to global price effects."

And it's a tremendous mess, a horrifying mess and that's where we are, I'm sorry. And we've got to get through this transition as quickly as possible to a more stable global monetary system with a lesser reliance on the dollar. We're going to get there over the next 10 years, I'm sure of it. We're going to get there. The only question we have to decide is, how we're going to get there." US-China trade

Meanwhile, a trade skirmish between the US and China could ensue, if Beijing continues to devalue its currency to bolster export-driven economic growth at the expense of economic recovery in the US, said Wolf.

He says China is working hard to defend the artificially low value of the renminbi in the hope that exports will pick up when external demand recovers. According to China's customs authorities, exports from January to November plunged by 18.8 per cent to $1.07trn from a year ago. However, according to The Royal Bank of Canada, export growth should pick up in the coming months and reach double-digits in early 2010.

China's efforts, Wolf said, will spark a "very vigorous, even vicious" reaction from the US as it's destabilising US efforts to engender an economic recovery.

No comments: