Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Yeh Gordon, The Recession is Over, right.

We know in Scotland that there is no greater fan of PM Brown than Das Herald Sturmer. It is no surprise then for me to read this headline this morning:

Britain’s worst recession at an end, say economists

Speculation is that an election will be called shortly. It doesn't tell you which economists exactly and sort of infers that all economists agree which is bull.

The evidence?

A 0.1% expansion in the economy between October and December ended six straight quarters of shrinking output, according to first estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Wooohooo. It is a rise though just like the chancellor said. What a fairytale for the government just before the election, indeed.

What the headline doesn't tell you about is all the changes to the accounting that's taken place. Things called 'adjustments' and other costs left off the balance sheet. Nor does it mention the hundrends of billions of taxpayers money that are being used to pump the economy up artificially. Nor does it mention that public and private debt in Britain has reached 449% of GDP. That's in the same territory as Iceland before that country's economy collapsed in a heap. Meanwhile corporate tax and income tax revenue has fallen off a cliff.

No, don't buy the bull. After the election is over the cuts will come and the taxes will sky-rocket. When interest rates finally go up you can expect to see something approaching half of the budget being spend on interest payments meaning public services will be decimated. Did you wonder why they are giving police balloons in the air to spy on the population? They're terrified of civil unrest.

You won't get to hear all that before the election though. How many green-shoots have we had? Believe me, this is just another false dawn. Lies being concocted to create a re-election platform.

These people are destroying the economy and bombarding you with propaganda. Britain is bankrupt and none of the dodgy accounting and money printing is going to fix that. In fact, it's going to make things worse. How many times have people been sold 'jam tomorrow'?

If you believe governments and banks you'll lose everything. Think for yourselves. Look around and ask yourself: are more of my friends finding jobs or losing them? Don't leave your future in the hands of demagogues and warmongerers!


Bugger said...

I know nowt about economics but

A GDP growth of 0.1%, awaiting confirmation.
A Q4 GDP of £315 billion
Quantitative Easing of £50 billion equivalent to to 16% of GDP injected.
I presume this £50 billion is counted into the GDP?
So how come we only grew 0.1% when we had January sales, in November and December, VAT set to increase in January, car sales subsidised and, oh yes, Xmas.

Are my calculations or understanding wrong?

Alex Porter said...

Oh Bugger,
Sounds like you know a lot more about economics than Gordon Brown!

I think you're calculations are out by a considerable margin. There's been a lot more than GBP 50 billion in money printing going on. I mean it's the BoE that's buying the bonds! I've seen calculations that printed money accounts for fully one-third of the budget and that's not including borrowings.

Yes, they count printed money as GDP and money that they borrow too!

If I understand it right, a lot of expenditure has been left off the balance sheet. (See entry http://scotlandunspun.blogspot.com/2010/01/massive-treasury-lying-exposed.html.)

It goes on and on. You think Greece has been lying about its accounts?

And that's nothing, once interest rates go up government debt will sore to over half the budget and they'll heavily tax the citizens who will be crippled by that interest given that they have more debt than the rest of the EU put together. Public and private debt in the UK is now 449% of 'GDP'..

I've seen riots for less..

Bugger said...

I was just referring to the Q4 QE figures well. this figure is what I dug out from Newspaper info on what they actually "pushed" into the market. Overall I think they have QE'd £175 billion.


Alex said...

Hi Bugger,
Yeh, I was just joking.

You're right, it's nuts! And all waiting for ya to pay off after the election..

Can you believe that a lot of Scots are proud of Brown? That's nuts!