Saturday, October 16, 2010

What will Scotland's role in the world be now that global oil supplíes have started to fall? It seems that with demand for oil in the world rising 'peak oil' is becoming a serious problem for global security.

Oil affects the price of 95% of everything we buy. As oil supplies drop so the global economy will stop growing. The financial system of the world is based on 'growth' and so when growth begins to decline so that system goes into crisis.

This issue is starting to seriously worry industrialised nations as a dramatic report by the Germand military and leaked by Der Spiegel reports:

Market failures: The authors paint a bleak picture of the consequences resulting from a shortage of petroleum. As the transportation of goods depends on crude oil, international trade could be subject to colossal tax hikes. "Shortages in the supply of vital goods could arise" as a result, for example in food supplies. Oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 95 percent of all industrial goods. Price shocks could therefore be seen in almost any industry and throughout all stages of the industrial supply chain. "In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse."

And this will have a major political effect on nations like Scotland according to the report:

Increasing importance of oil exporters: For importers of oil more competition for resources will mean an increase in the number of nations competing for favor with oil-producing nations. For the latter this opens up a window of opportunity which can be used to implement political, economic or ideological aims. As this window of time will only be open for a limited period, "this could result in a more aggressive assertion of national interests on the part of the oil-producing nations."

The debate about how Scotland will relate to the outside world diplomatically and geo-politcally in relation to 'peak oil' must start now! It is in everyone's interest to raise the issue on to the political agenda in Scotland.

That debate has started on:

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