Bread and Butter Independence

Relief. Many nationalists are feeling it now that Salmond has put 'Independence' to the forefront of the Holyrood election campaign. On top of that Alex has done the sensible thing and is going to combine the idea of independence with the current state of the economy - Uk, Scottish and global.

Much of the reason why people voted for devolution was because the idea of it was related to bread and butter issues. An excellent point made in Gerry Hassan's latest blog entry.














.... Independence is not that high an issue with voters. SNP supporters will say neither was devolution pre-Parliament. The difference is that devolution under Thatcher and Major became increasingly interconnected with ‘bread and butter’ economic and social issues; independence has so far failed to do this. The coming public spending savaging – estimated at 5.9% cuts of £1.7 billion in 2011-12 – will be potentially aided by the ‘Calman cuts’ – which would produce Scots public spending cuts comparable to a Polish post-Communist ‘shock therapy’ – may change this.

The timing to connect the idea of independence with 'bread and butter' issues could not be better for the SNP. While the very idea of the mandate for Britain to govern Scotland is being questioned the very legitimacy and viability of Westminster has collapsed:

On the other hand, the unionist parties and institutional establishment of Scotland have not come to terms with the depths of the multi-faceted crisis of Britain: of its politics, democracy, state and economy. This goes to the heart of what Britain is and what the union is for.

I know that the SNP have attracted many who do not believe in independence. However the party was not established to cater for that constituency nor for its own success but as a vehicle to realise an independent Scotland. The time to convert people to that idea has arrived. Loyalty to Westminster is collapsing across Britain and the UK's finances are beyond repair. The idea of independence will inevitably be related to bread and butter issues. It is the job of Salmond's team to ram that message home. The grounds are shifting and the SNP have awoken to it. The party has established itself as competent - it is becoming the only show in town. That is an advantage which can not and must not be wasted.

Perhaps a look back at how devolution grew into something more than a consitutional issue might help. We need as much imagination and debate as possible. For the cause of independence, this could be the nationalists' big chance.

Scottish Politics About to Change!

A huge change in Scottish politics is coming.

Der Spiegel has published a shocking report which shows how oil is about to change the political climate of the world. This will have a huge influence on Scottish politics.

Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

The report has been leaked and was written by the German military. The issue is enormous for the political landscape and will have far-reaching consequences in terms of international security. Scotland will be right in the thick of it.

We are warned of:

shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.

And you thought the financial crisis and global warming were problems. All these crises together is enough to make you head for the hills. What will it all mean for Scottish politics though? It seems that countries with oil will grow in status.

In summary the report looks at the changing landscape:

For importers of oil more competition for resources will mean an increase in the number of nations competing for favor with oil-producing nations. For the latter this opens up a window of opportunity which can be used to implement political, economic or ideological aims. As this window of time will only be open for a limited period, "this could result in a more aggressive assertion of national interests on the part of the oil-producing nations.

Britain has managed to avoid all debate about the significance of North Sea oil. Indeed many think that is has no effect at all on the UK's finances. This will no longer be the case. It's import will not be lost on the business and political communities, especially during crisis. Consequently, now is the time for the SNP to bring the subject on to the political agenda. The oil slogans of the past were easily neutered by the unionist press and perfidious civil servants and politicians but a coherent case backed up by oil industry experts will have an energising effect on Scottish politics just at the time when the issue of 'independence' takes centre stage.

The glut of North Sea oil discoveries in the last few weeks is there as an impetus. Salmond, himself an oil economist, should be expertly lining up industry witnesses to underline the case. In the near future the issue of peak oil will move centre-stage on the international agenda lending even more credibility to the nationalists' prospectus.

The nature of the 'peak oil' debate will allow the SNP to point to an independent Scotland gaining influence in Europe and beyond. Moving from an appendage of England to a desirable trading partner with all the benefits that go with that sort of energy muscle.

Summarising again from the Der Spiegal leak:

The Bundeswehr Transformation Center writes that oil will become one decisive factor in determining the new landscape of international relations: "The relative importance of the oil-producing nations in the international system is growing. These nations are using the advantages resulting from this to expand the scope of their domestic and foreign policies and establish themselves as a new or resurgent regional, or in some cases even global leading powers.

Now, some people don't much like the idea of the EU and others will tell you that Scotland has bargaining power because of the weight of the UK. Sorry but Scotland is the biggest oil producer in the EU. If the EU wants Scotland as a member or with some kind of affiliate status then oil is going to be a huge bargaining chip. In or out we'll have no shortage of friends as an independent nation. A far better state of affairs than being marginal and having the worst poverty in Europe.. Add that to having embassies, direct UN representation and delegates at other bodies as oil production gets you on the guest list and an image of an emergent Scotland starts to take shape.

The German report pulls no punches. Der Spiegal summarises that nations will have 'bi-lateral' trade agreements meaning you won't be able to buy oil on the open market, that price shocks in oil will threaten the entire global economic system with collapse (meaning supply will be central to security in every region especially advanced economies), that dependence on oil will lead to the collapse of 'market economies' as oil prices which effect 95% of everything that's produced may have to be fixed, that lack of preparation for 'peak oil' will mean a rebalance in regional power brokering or geo-politcal balances and that the effects of 'peak oil' can lead populations to a sense that their government and civic institutions have lost political legitimacy.

Waow! And Scotland has a ton of the stuff.

Oil is used in everything from make-up to plastic bags to shoes to cables etc etc. When it becomes more scarce what will drive industrial society? A sobering thought but there'll be no time for reflection as cities downsize and people start working in food related work all over again..

Yes, the financial crisis and 'peak oil' mean the stars are aligning for the cause of Scottish independence.

Shifting Blame and The Guillotine.

The Herald reports today the reality of what voting Labour has done for Glaswegians:

Revealed: Stark reality of frontline teaching

The facts revealed by a Glasgow City Council report would be shocking if we already didn't know just how horrible the reality is for many Glaswegians.

In one class of P7 children in a school in the city’s east end, 21 pupils out of a total of 24 were identified as having significant additional needs, ranging from parents with drug and alcohol problems to having to cope with domestic violence.

Three of the 11-year-olds were coping with the recent deaths of close relatives – some through drug abuse – while four had parents who were battling drug or alcohol addictions. Others had been exposed to domestic violence, while one child’s mother had recently attempted suicide.

So we know what the problems are so what answers are thrown up to address these problems? You got it - parenting programmes. School trips were actually a good idea but parenting programmes? Will someone answer me this question: How are you ever supposed to get good parents when they live in the economic and social environment provided by the city of Glasgow? I mean the problem is chronic because of years of neglect and active attacks on the poor.

Instead of addressing real problems like corporate greed, bank charges, bail-outs, credit card interest, predatory supermarkets, housing speculation, council corruption and so on. To provide a cover for all these social evils we get parenting programmes, minimum price alcohal, ASBOs and so on. All Big Brother garbage which does nothing to solve the problem but which actually causes and perpetuates the problem by protecting the perpetrators. It would be difficult to investigate vested interests like banks and council chambers so instead we go after the weak. We blame the poor for the theft of the life opportunities and the consequent social problems. It really is, to me, a sick and twisted psychology that seeks to stick the boot in where people are most vulnerable because of a problem which is at root economic.

Rather than actually pointing the finger at the true culprits - bankers, corporate lobbyists and politicians at central and local levels we demonise the poor. The problem you see is that they drink and take drugs and become bad parents because of it. You never hear the truth that it is because of the stupifying nature of big brother government telling people that they only have themselves to blame. You see it can't be government's fault.

Oh no? If you hadn't robbed taxpayers to pay for Trident and wars much of this poverty would be solved. If there was consumer protection against speculating bankers then there would be far more jobs..

Corruption and greed at the top of the system is the problem. It is not caused by bad parenting - that is merely a symptom. People do not have the hope that job opportunities give them. Why? Low interest rates supplying fat christmas bonuses for bankers, wars that fatten the shareholders' wallets of banks and arms manufacturers. Politicians on the take. Those are the problems. Get rid of them and in a few years you'll have fully functional parenting, I promise you.

Where is the vision of this land? It's bogged down in governement for and by big business. That's who's to blame. Politicians who take us into wars that we expressly didn't want to be involved in. Bankers who destroy the real economy by sucking up billions of pounds from the real economy to cover up their fraud and so on.

There's a storm coming. We have a system crash. Bankers' fraud can no longer be covered up and unless we try them and jail them the economy will continue downwards. People will start going hungry and you'll be in French revolution territory.

When you get to the point where the people's children can't eat because of the greed of a small band of banking and corporate aristocrats it'll be 'off with their heads time'.

If we don't reform the system now, blood may well have to spill.

Do We Need Fraud To Survive?

Another great CounterPunch piece by Mike Hudson. There seems to be some confusion about what caused and is causing the 'crisis'. Many in government and the press seem just not to get it. Well, here it is. And think about it! How is there going to be a 'recovery' whilst this is not getting sorted out. Think about it and use the information to effect policy. (someone tell the SNP please.)

Does Our Economy Really Have to Run on Fraud?

By MICHAEL HUDSON


What is the difference between today’s economy and Lehman Brothers just before it collapsed in September 2008? Should Lehman, the economy, Wall Street – or none of the above – be bailed out of bad mortgage debt? How did the Fed and Treasury decide which Wall Street firms to save – and how do they decide whether or not to save U.S. companies, personal mortgage debtors, states and cities from bankruptcy and insolvency today? Why did it start by saving the richest financial institutions, leaving the “real” economy locked in debt deflation?

For more read here.

Bankers Go To London: Good Riddance!

Another day another Scotland's not viable and needs London Scotsman story.

Capital yet to feel full force of banks' collapse

It's all terrible you see. Bankers are going South and so are using English lawyers and accountants. And the bankers are responsible for buying most of the multi-million pound houses in Edinburgh.

Thanks to fraud the entire financial sector is insolvent but government has changed the rules of accounting. Why? So that the bankers can pay themselves commission by pretending to be in profit. To try and keep the financial sector on life-support Westminster is throwing freshly printed money at them for nothing. The profits they're supposed to be making is made by using the free money they're being given to buy and sell financial products to each other. Then they charge massive commissions and collect bonuses.

Why should the public be paying for bankers to have multi-million pound houses in Edinburgh or anywhere?

The financial sector will have to scale down. When public subsidies stop going to The City there'll be an exodus of bankers from there too. Bankers in Edinburgh are heading South because that's where all the free money is getting pumped in. This is nothing to do with increased sales - it's fraud. Blatant and in your face fraud. So brazen you can't believe what's right in front of your nose. The people are being robbed blind by bankers in collusion with government.

And why is it a disaster for expensive houses to drop in price? Escalating house prices help only banks. Rising house prices means exodus of manufacturing which is what the economy needs if it is ever to be healthy again. Your house price goes up, you have to take a cr@p job, house prices go down and all you have is debt and a cr@p job. The bankers love it though. They make a fortune on house-price speculation. Then when prices drop you need the credit card to survive. They get money for free and often charge 50% APR on the credit card. The free money they get is yours!

Sorry but the financial sector needs to decline. It was pumped up by fraud and subsidy and needs to correct. Let the bankers go to London - they'll be off to Beijing shortly after that as London collapses under the weight of fraud. We don't need house-price rises - our houses are our homes not investment vehicles thank you very much.

Scotland needs a root and branch overhaul of its credit system in an independent Scotland. The centralisation of credit is dangerous as El Crisis shows.

Let Scotland invest in manufacturing and indigenous business. Finance it by ending the welfare state for bankers.

Salmond: The Silly Wizard of Oz

What in the name of the wee man in Salmond up to now?















No sooner does the 'Arc of Prosperity' turn into the 'Arc of Insolvency' than Salmond points to Australia as Scotland's economic model.


Forget Iceland. Australia's a hotter role model for Scotland, says Alex Salmond

No wonder The Scotsman has splashed this story. The unionist rag can't believe its luck. What a hostage to fortune if ever there was one. Iceland and Ireland were never good models for Scotland and that blew up in Salmond's face. Now he rolls out Australia. Does Salmond have a scoobie as to why the current economic collapse is happening? We have systemic collapse brought about by too much debt. Iceland and Ireland got into the speculation game and got burned. Australia has staved off the inevitable but their debt is humungus. Yes, 'gold' mining has bought them time but they are an accident waiting to happen.

Some argue that the best economist alive is Steve Keen - an Australian economist. See his blog here. What is Steve Keen predicting for Australia? A collapse in housing prices and devaluation of the Aus$.

This could easily happen before the Holyrood elections. So, what in heaven's name is Salmond doing attaching the party's reputation to the perilous state of Oz?

For a start Oz, since the crisis, is now integrating itself into the Asian economies and especially China. How can this be a comparison for Scotland? Australia may well have lasted this long without economic mayhem but that certainly does not mean it'll last. The problem of debt that has ravaged the Western world is consuming Australia and it is only a matter of time. Sure, they have a 'commodity currency' which means that if they run out of money they can borrow against future gold sales but their national and household debt is enormous. It is unsustainable and is very typical of the problems that are haunting the US, UK, Spain, Iceland, Ireland and others. A ticking time-bomb.

And Salmond, the economist, is pinning his colours to Australia. Has he understood nothing of the crisis?

There is only one decent model for Scotland and it is Norway. Same population, same geographical situation, same natural resources but Scotland has certain advantages over Norway such as whisky, tourism and financial services. There is no reason why Scotland couldn't emulate Norway which has easily weathered The Crisis. Norway has a strong currency, no debt problems and has invested in infrastructure and future genertions. Australia is a debt-driven bubble waiting to explode.

Please Alex. Change tack immediately. Stick to Norway!

On the subject of Oz, here is a song by The Silly Wizards to lend you some sanity. What a loss Johnny Cunningham is!

Enjoy: The Rambling Rover

SNP Wakes Up: Time to Rally!

Has the SNP realised that it is not in the business of devolution management but independence? We are starting to see some signs that the leadership will highlight the cause of independence at the Holyrood elections in May next year.

SNP to push independence at poll

Anyone who has read my blog knows that I've advocated associating the independence issue with the current UK economic depression. If we'd pushed a 'Bankrupt Britain - Solvent Scotland' campaign before the Westminster election the party would have planted in the minds of the electorate two key seeds: Firstly, that Britain, unlike Scotland, is economically dying, secondly, that Labour destroyed the British economy. Before the election Brown had the media talking about 'recovery' - he used printed money to hide the UK's economic state long enough to get to the election (and he still lost).

Some of us knew that 'recovery' was baloney. What we have is not 'recession' or the new baloney 'double-dip recession' but systemic failure. Britain's economy was held up for over 30 years by oil and later by systemic fraud by The City of London. It's all coming crashing down now. That's not recession.

The SNP were in a fantastic position to exploit this with a bold 'Britain is Bankrupt' campaign. It didn't but it seems they are now waking up from their Holyrood slumbers and remembering why they exist:

the SNP would combine independence with the economy and stress that an independent Scotland could deal with the economic crisis without swingeing budget cuts.

Is it too little too late? For this campign to resonate in the minds of the electorate it should have been hammered home before the Westminster elections and her principle competitor Labour would now be on the ropes for 'ruining the economy'. The SNP would now be in the position of saying I told you so.. Instead Labour have wriggle-room:

"Alex Salmond, himself a former banker, can't bring himself to see that Labour used the strength of the UK to protect Scotland from complete economic meltdown like Iceland or Ireland."

I welcome Salmond's shift but it still seems a tad wooly. In rolling out this strategy you first have to establish that Labour broke Britain. That pins them down. This should be the dominant theme for the rest of the year. This also defends the SNP government which has to enforce cuts thanks to its reduced budget. In September and October there will be more economic shocks to come as the Summer is over and business realises that they have to revise down their expections. This means less predicted tax revenue and worsening unemployment. At that point the SNP bolts on it's 'Scotland is Solvent' line to the Labour destroyed Britain campaign. That way you have estabished that the UK is sinking into oblivion, Labour caused it and there's no need to take the pain in an independent Scotland. Going into the new year the party turns up the heat with a 'Britain is Bankrupt' campaign. Labour can't argue about protecting Scotland because they caused the UK's mess - a message already established. You've embedded distrust of Labour's message. For the rest of the campaign drive home the message that 'Independence means Jobs, Britain means bankruptcy'.

Yes, it's all very late in the day but a slick and focused media campaign might just swing it. It is interesting to note that many pathological leadership loyalists in the SNP were resisting championing independence and combining that idea with the economy. I've heard that now is a bad time to talk about independence. Clearly, there could not be a better time. I've heard about it being 'too negative'. Sorry but you can't help but make independence look attractive by demonstrating the ugliness of union. It will be interesting to see what these people have to say now that the SNP are waking up to reality.

Not that it matters. The leadership perhaps had a rude awakening from its members who were deeply concerned. Whatever the reason for the awakening, what matters is that nationalists can rally around a straight-talking campaign. I urge Salmond to send Swinney out to talk to boardrooms while sending Sturgeon, Neil and any other political bruisers he has at his disposal onto the tv and other public forums. Get on with the business of enlisting economists and business figures who'll back up the line etc.

This should be an epic campaign and so all resources should be poured into it. The mainstream media will make life difficult but their effectiveness wanes the more people smell the lies. An alternative media campaign should be funded and resourced. The SNP will find this a far more friendly environment and shouldn't underestimate its reach and influence on the mainstream.

The strategy is there. Deployed effectively it can be powerful and effective. There's no time to waste in mobilising all resources to the cause. This is a battle over our nation's future. Only imagination, straight-talking, intelligence and boldness will win it.

All those dismayed by the SNP's political conduct recently can now take courage. It's time to rally.