UK Economic Umbrella In Crisis

A piece I did for Newsnet Scotland:

by Alex Porter

Public confidence in the UK economy remains at rock-bottom according to YouGov economic trackers. (1)

Asked about the state of the British economy only 5 percent of UK citizens surveyed responded that they believed it is 'good', 22 percent that it is 'neither good nor bad', 69 percent that it is 'bad' with 4 percent in the 'don't know' category.

The British population continue to be distressed about their personal welfare over the next two to three years with 67 percent of the population feeling 'worried' that they will not have enough money to live comfortably, 63 percent that they will either lose their jobs or have difficulty finding one whilst 43 percent fear losing their home.

Such deep pessimism caused by UK government debt, financial and currency crises is seeing Scots becoming increasingly skeptical of the unionist argument that Scotland is protected from global market volatility by the UK economic umbrella.

In terms of apportioning blame the YouGov trackers show that people across the UK, 41 percent, believe the last UK Labour government is responsible for impending austerity cuts, 23 percent the coalition while 24 percent find both current and former governments equally culpable.

With such a huge question mark hanging over the issue of the economic competence of Westminster governments the SNP's policy of economic independence has gathered momentum in Scotland ahead of the forthcoming Holyrood elections.

A recent survey shows that a large majority, 62 percent, of Scots want the Scottish Parliament to assume substantial new powers. This year's Scottish Social Attitudes Survey also reveals that 57 per cent of Scots want Holyrood to have control over taxation and 62 percent control over welfare benefits. Another survey conducted by TNS on St Andrews day shows that only a minority of Scots, 44 percent, now support the union.

Recent calls for economic independence by Scotland's prestigious Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) and Scottish business leaders were dismissed by the Scottish Secretary Michael Moore.


Austerity

More people across the UK, 43 percent, now believe that the UK government's policy of austerity cuts will further damage the British economy while 40 percent believe the opposite according to the YouGov economic tracker.

The findings raise the question of why Scotland, which has a surplus in its national accounts (GERS), must suffer cuts to its government's block grant from Westminster. These cuts must be factored in to financial planning by Scottish businesses and institutions such as the university sector hitting employment, training and higher education courses.

With the UK government targeting deep reductions in public sector jobs and benefit payments there is a growing concern that a depleted workforce will mean more mortgage defaults whilst less expendible income will reduce the government's VAT receipts and have a negative effect on retail employment.

The worry for the UK's ConDem government is that if austerity fails, like stimulus did before it, the public will demand an end to expensive foreign wars and nuclear weapons systems as the best option to reduce Britain's unprecedented budget deficits.


(1) http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Trackers-Economy-141210.pdf

Economic Growth, Colonisation and Scottish Unionism

A fantastic visualisation of economic growth below by Hans Rosling for BBC4.

It shows how life expectancy has changed over the last 200 years and more for 200 countries. Interestingly he shows how it can be broken down into regions and rural:urban areas.

One interesting focus is on how independence helped former British colonies improve their health dramatically in a short space of time. Scotland's role in the British empire was and is shameful and we haven't even begun to atone. While there are encouraging records of Scots mutiny against orders, examples of disgrace are legion.

In more recent examples of imperial adventure we can point to evidence of abuse in Afghanistan and Iraq. The process of dehumanisation can and will turn many morally upstanding citizens into colonising soldiers who abuse subjugated populations. Studies show that it is not difficult to have people administer pain to another by convincing the subject that it is good for the victim.

This is not an attempt at justifying or excusing those aspects of Scotland's shameful imperial record but understanding the process that lead to it.

I believe that much of the blame for Scotland's involvement belonged to its aristocracy (which is really part of a small club called British) - democracy was still a long way off.

This Scottish elite which prospered so much from empire under the patronage of Lord Melville formed the basis of modern Scottish unionism. It undermines the aspiration of the people by attacking it along the lines of both class and identity. It does this job and takes the consequent kick-backs.

In Northern Ireland colonisation was effected through the process of turning those from a specific population into second-class citizens and by educating them that their culture was of limited value. This policy was rolled out across the empire.

When the class struggle looked like it might be lost this Scottish elite absorbed the Scottish Labour movement into enough of its trappings to have them do the job for them.

Watch the video and consider the average life expectancy of certain areas of Glasgow and how it is among troubled third-world nations like Ghana. Perhaps we should consider these parts of Glasgow as Labour colonies kept in a state of abject poverty in order to beat their votes out of them. At the same time their history, language and culture were denigrated as part of the pincer movement.

Guards posted to suppress personal volition - the oldest imperialist trick in the book:

Only a minority of Scots now support union according to new poll

Another piece I did for Newsnet Scotland:


by Alex Porter

A new opinion poll conducted by TNS shows that less than half of Scots now support Scotland remaining inside the union.

The poll, conducted over St Andrews Day and surveying a large sample of almost 1000 people, shows that only 44% of those questioned are against the Scottish Parliament "having the powers and responsibilities to enable independence".

Whilst those in favour of Scotland taking the path to independence was still slightly behind at 40% the poll showed that the gap had narrowed significantly as the recent trend towards independence continues.

The most worrying aspect of the poll for supporters of the union is that a full 16 percent of respondents "didn't know" and suggests that a clear majority of the population are now either in favour of independence or are prepared to consider the option.

The poll, conducted for the SNP, follows findings by the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey which shows that support for Scottish independence rises to almost half (45 per cent) if taxes were to go down by £500 – with 62 per cent also saying that the Scottish Parliament should take the most important decisions about welfare benefits, while 57 per cent say the same about taxes.

Together with this survey the TNS poll shows the unionist case that Scots view the constitution as irrelevant to the UK economic crisis is not convincing the electorate. Recent calls by business leaders and world-renowned economists such as Andrew Hughes-Hallet (Prof. of Economics: George Mason University, Washington DC) for economic independence are resonating with the Scottish electorate which faces austerity cuts at a time when the Scottish national accounts (GERS) show a surplus.

Mounting pressure on the unionist parties' stance came this week from the publication of Scotland's prestigious Council of Economic Advisors's (CEA) third annual report. It concludes that the Calman Commission, set up by a unionist party coalition of Labour, Tory and LibDems which forms the basis of Westminster's Scotland Bill "does not go nearly far enough" and that the Scottish parliament needs "full financial responsibility" with "control of the major tax levers" which represents Scotland's "best chance" to maximise its economic potential.

With the Holyrood campaign now a mere few months off, party strategist will vie over the key issue of economic competence. While Labour are still blamed for the parlous state of the UK's public finances, the SNP have successfully established their policy of economic independence for Scotland in the minds of the electorate.

With the Calman Commission proposals facing increasing forensic criticism, accused of being "dangerously flawed" and "unworkable" by economic experts and business leaders, Labour and their Calman coalition allies will be under pressure to explain why they want to deny the significantly increased powers to the Scottish parliament voters believe will improve the economic prospects of the nation.

Referendum

The TNS poll findings also will fuel further calls for a referendum on independence to be held. In poll after poll a large majority of Scots have been shown to favour holding a referendum on independence whether they are for the proposal or against it. However a unionist party coalition of Labour, Tory and LibDems has manoeuvred to deny this democratic right to Scots. They have opposed attempts in the Scottish Parliament at bringing forward legislation to hold such a referendum - one of the SNP government's key manifesto pledges.

Adding insult to injury the UK government has decided to hold a referendum on the Alternative Vote (AV) system which, furthermore, is to be held on the day of the Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections. The system is not proportional and the plebiscite will distract attention away from the election campaigns for Scots and Welsh voters to decide which parties they want to form their next respective governments.

This curious situation where a widely sought referendum on independence is denied to Scots whereas a referendum on the AV system, which few support, is held will raise questions over the democratic conduct and legitimacy of the UK government. Only a small minority of the Scottish electorate voted for the Liberal Democrat and Conservative parties who at the UK general election were ranked third and fourth place in Scotland behind Labour and the SNP.

Indeed, this democratic inconsistency has lead to the campaign by the Bella Caledonia outlet which calls on Scots to spoil their AV referendum ballot paper by writing the word 'Independence' across it. Scottish and indeed English citizens have never been consulted on whether they endorsed the suspension of their independent parliaments, leading some on both sides of the border to describe the union as a "forced marriage". The denial of a referendum on independence will only harden that perspective.

Scotland's "Best Chance" is Economic Independence claims Council of Economic Advisors

A piece I did for Newsnet Scotland:

by Alex Porter
Economy Editor

In its Third Annual Report, Scotland's prestigious Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) has concluded that the Calman Commission proposals "do not go nearly far enough" and that "full financial responsibility" with "control of the major tax levers" is Scotland's "best chance" to maximise its economic potential.

Scotland's CEA which is chaired by Sir George Mathewson includes world-renowned economists and academics such as Andrew Hughes-Hallet (Professor of Economics and Public Policy) of George Mason University, Washington DC. Given that the CEA members are of such international calibre, its scathing analysis of the Calman Commission's proposals will concern Scotland's business community, public institutions and the general public.

It is the latest in a succession of criticism faced by the increasingly controversial Calman proposals which form the basis of the Scotland Bill. Figures such as Professors Andrew Hughes-Hallett, Sheila Dow and Rod Cross and economists Dr Jim and Margaret Cuthbert have described the Calman proposals as "dangerously flawed" and "unworkable". Marc Coleman, former economist at the European Central Bank, recently commented that 'Scotland requires immediate fiscal autonomy and Calman falls well short of fiscal autonomy.'

The Calman Commission was set up by the Labour, Tory and LibDem parties and its apparent flaws are viewed by many economists as emanating from a political rather than economic agenda. Calculations show that had these proposals already been in place, Scottish government budgets would have faced cuts to the tune of £8 billion since 1999.

Referring to the challenges Scotland faces owing to the parlous state of Britain's public finances Sir George said: "What happens in Scotland in the near future depends very much on the strength of the global economy as well as the impact of austerity measures imposed by the Westminster Government."

As Scotland's national accounts currently show a surplus, the Scottish electorate would be justified in asking why its government's grant from London should be cut at all. With economic independence it needn't be.

Recently, the world respected Legatum Institute's Prosperity Index 2010 placed the UK 98th in the world in terms of the public's confidence in their job expectations. This ranking is usually the reserve of third-world countries and supports the case for Scotland wresting control over its economic future from London.

One of the CEA report's key recommendations is: "Seeking to obtain tax powers in order to be in a position to influence the rate of economic growth and employment and engaging with the UK Government to make the necessary institutional changes for this to be possible."

The case for economic independence, resisted by the unionist coalition inside the Calman Commission, is increasingly popular with Scots. Last week saw the publication of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2010 which showed that 62 per cent of Scots favour significantly more powers for the Scottish Parliament. On tax (57 per cent) and welfare benefits (62 per cent) - a clear majority, want the Scottish Parliament to make these decisions on behalf of the nation.

Controversially, the Scottish parliament's Scotland Bill Committee is chaired by Wendy Alexander MSP. Miss Alexander, as leader of the Labour group at Holyrood, was forced to resign in 2008 amid accusations of financial corruption. The issue continues to reverberate in public discourse as a result of successive revelations in connection with the matter and raises further doubts over the probity of the Scotland Bill.

With the Holyrood elections now less than six months away and with Westminster austerity cuts looming, the issue of economic competence will be pivotal for an electorate concerned about jobs and the economy. Recent polls have shown that the public blame the last Labour government for the UK's unprecedented budget deficits.

During the campaign the SNP will ask why the electorate should believe that Iain Gray's party can fix the sovereign debt, financial and currency crises that Labour itself created. At the same time the SNP will point to a popular record on governmental efficiency savings, the abolition of prescription charges and the freezing of council tax bills.

If Labour strategists cannot convince voters of the benefits of denying Scotland the real powers that Scots believe will improve their economic prospects, First Minister Alex Salmond will feel increasingly confident about his chances of keeping the keys to Bute House.

Irish Closer To Rejecting Bailout

A couple of interesting stories on Zerohedge today about Ireland. The first is about how the opposition Labour party are intending to vote down the bailout budget ensuring that the Irish people will not be lumped with the private losses of global investors. In Scotland we have to learn the lesson of not allowing ourselves to be dominated by external powers. The second is a video interview of a blunt Irish financial expert, who works in the US, on the crisis in Ireland:

Remember Europe and that insolvent country which Ron Insana conclusively determined does not matter? It's back on the scene after Reuters reports that the main Irish opposition Labor party has just announced it will vote against the IMF/EU bailout package. Just what spin Olli Rehn will have to use to calm markets after his latest vassal nation continually refuses to go quietly into that good night, remains to be seen.

From Reuters:

The euro extended declines on Thursday after a spokesperson from Ireland's centre-left opposition Labour party said the party will vote against an 85 billion euro IMF/EU bailout package when it is put before parliament for approval next week.

"Labour would vote against it because we consider it a bad deal," she told Reuters. Ireland's governing Fianna Fail party said on Thursday it would seek parliamentary approval for the rescue funds.




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Update:

The Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is threatening an ammendment to his budget that would see the imposition of a 90% tax on bankers' bonuses:

“As far as the future is concerned I do propose to introduce the amendment to the finance bill to put this matter beyond any doubt and provide a high rate, a 90 per cent rate of charge on any ... bankers’ bonuses,”

Read more.

Amazing what you can achieve when you threaten to reject a bailout. The bonuses will be 10s of millions - the bailout 10s of billions. Mmmmm. Take the tax receipts and reject the bailout too! I hope people are watching this.

An Awakening

Austerity is not a forgone conclusion. The bankers using their government proxy would like us to believe that the public has to bail them out. We are supposed not just to forgive their fraud, which was an abuse of deposits and savings, but now compensate them for the losses they racked up indulging in it.

We are told it's good for us to accept austerity and have our standard of living slashed because we can't get by without these bankers. Yeh, we need them to commit fraud otherwise our economy will collapse. Well, the financial system went and to bail them out our economies and currencies were sacrificed and yet still the financial system is dead. All that public money is doing is continuing to pay bankster bonuses until there's nothing left.

Well, it's coming to an end. The people have had enough and are fighting back.

Listen to this English schoolboy for example. Clearly, there is an awakening:

Wikileaks Cables: Megrahi Release Fully Supported By Labour Government

Latest piece I did for Newsnet Scotland:

by Alex Porter

In a sensational development US diplomatic cables, leaked to The Guardian newspaper by Wikileaks, show that the last Labour government fully supported the early release of the convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi. Megrahi was released in 2009, on grounds of compassion, after being diagnosed with terminal cancer.

Britain feared "harsh and immediate" consequences, according to the leaked cables, if Megrahi were to die in a Scottish prison. Libya has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa. "The Libyans have told HMG [Her Majesty's Government] flat out that there will be 'enormous repercussions' for the UK-Libya bilateral relationship if Megrahi's early release is not handled properly." wrote the London charge d'affaires Richard LeBaron in a cable to Washington in October 2008.

The revelations exonerate the Scottish government which has faced an unrelenting barrage of criticism for releasing Megrahi on compassionate grounds. The Labour party heaped opprobrium on First Minister Alex Salmond and called for the resignation of Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill. Labour politicians claimed publicly that the decision to release Megrahi was an embarrassment to Scotland whilst privately the leaked documents show the Labour leadership were in fact favouring his release.

The cables show that the UK government was aware of dire repercussions should Megrahi die in a Scottish prison:

"GOL officials have warned U.K. Emboffs in demarches here that the consequences for the U.K.-Libya bilateral relationship would be "dire" were al-Megrahi to die in Scottish prison. Specific threats have included the immediate cessation of all U.K. commercial activity in Libya, a diminishment or severing of political ties and demonstrations against official U.K. facilities. GOL officials also implied, but did not directly state, that the welfare of U.K. diplomats and citizens in Libya would be at risk."

The documents also reveal that the US were privately suspicious of Tony Blair's 'Deal in the Desert' in 2007. The cable states:

"Saif al-Islam implied that former UK PM Tony Blair had raised Megrahi with the Libyan leader in connection with lucrative business deals during Blair's 2007 visit to Libya. [Note: Rumors that Blair made linkages between Megrahi's release and trade deals have been longstanding among Embassy contacts. End note.]"

The Guardian reported documents as claiming that: "Anger with the British persists in some American circles, and UK ministers, Labour and Tory, have attempted to distance London from the release insisting it was purely a Scottish decision."

Public reaction is sure to be one of disbelief at the way in which the Labour party have sought to make political capital out of the worst terrorist atrocity ever committed in Britain.

Further cables from the US ambassador to Libya, Gene Cretz, show that the US position was to resist voicing opposition to Megrahi's release at the time so as not to risk Libyan retaliation against US interests.

Mr Cretz warned the US itself should keep quiet in order to protect its interests: "If the [US government] publicly opposes al-Megrahi's release or is perceived to be complicit in a decision to keep al-Megrahi in prison, [America's Libyan diplomatic] post judges that US interests could face similar consequences."

The silence presumably included US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton who later claimed that the decision was wrong and had denied justice to the families of the dead. The US "continues to categorically disagree with the decision" said Clinton. The documents suggest that both the Labour UK government and their US counterparts have unleashed false, and seemingly co-ordinated, furore about the Scottish government's decision since the announcement.

Recently a group of US senators, supported by Labour MSP Richard Baker, pushed for Kenny MacAskill to answer to the US Senate's Foreign Relation's Committee regarding his decision. However many of the accusations levelled against the Scottish Justice Minister by the US politicians included clear falsehoods and misunderstandings based on UK media reports that included innuendo about the Scottish government being influenced by oil giant BP.

The cables also make clear that bribes in the form of 'treats' were offered to the Scottish government by Libyan diplomats but were refused point blank. Further attempts at smearing the Scottish government in relation to seeking finance from Qatar in return for the release of Megrahi have been emphatically denied by the Qatari MFA Minister of State for International Cooperation, Khalid Al-Attiyah, who said "'That is ridiculous. It was not necessary to offer money. It was all done within Scottish law. We offered no money, investment, or payment of any kind."

UK PM David Cameron will also now stand accused of trying to make political capital out of the tragedy as he publicly announced at his party conference in Scotland that the Scottish government's decision was "wrong" and that "nothing like that must ever happen again". It is reasonable to assume that Cameron was aware of the content of the leaked cables before making these comments.

First Minister Alex Salmond is said to have been shocked by a public letter sent by FBI Director Robert Mueller over the release of Megrahi and described it as "over the top" given that President Obama had already commented on the decision. The cables show US officials acknowledging that the Scottish government acted in good faith at all times and had nothing to gain whereas the UK government, according to the leaked documents, gained massively from Megrahi's illness and subsequent release.

The cable states:

"Salmond reiterated that he and his government "had played straight" with both the USG and UK Government, but implied that the UK Government had not. During the meeting, which occurred before the Mueller and Mullen statements, he said he wanted to move beyond the Megrahi issue and deepen Scotland's relationship with the USG."

The cables also reveal that the reaction to the release was more severe than the Scottish government had anticipated and that Scottish opposition parties were trying to capitalise on it for political gain:

"Meanwhile, local Scottish opposition politicians are using the issue to call into question the SNP government's credibility and competence."

"Naysmith underscored that Scotland received "nothing" for releasing Megrahi (as has been widely suggested in the UK and U.S. media), while the UK Government has gotten everything - a chance to stick it to Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP) and good relations with Libya."

Far from embarrassing Britain the Scottish government is now shown to be the only western government involved in the affair to have behaved with honour and respect. The truth, now out, is that a politcal conspiracy on both sides of the Atlantic, to use the Scottish government as a scapegoat, has been exposed.

The leaks will call into question the integrity of many within the Labour party in Scotland and suggest that the dignity of Scotland is secure in the hands of First Minister Alex Salmond and Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill.